The very first flakes are typically sighted on high-altitude peaks, with the Northern Rockies (Montana, Wyoming, Colorado) expected to see the season’s first snow as early as late September or early October. Measurable snow will then spread, likely reaching the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast by late October into November, signaling the true start of winter for northern residents.
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2025–2026 U.S. Winter Forecast Overview
| Region | Timing of First Snow | Winter Highlights (2025–2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Rockies | September–Early October | Early snow on high peaks; spreading into Utah and Colorado. |
| Pacific Northwest | Late October | Snow in Washington Cascades and Oregon mountains. |
| Upper Midwest | Late October–November | Strong lake-effect snow near Great Lakes. |
| Northeast & New England | Late October–December | Nor’easters likely; first measurable snow by early December. |
| Central Plains & Mid-Atlantic | November–December | Snow expands into Kansas, Pittsburgh, and Boston. |
| Southern States | Late December–January | Light snow possible in northern Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky. |
| Deep South & Florida | Rare | Mostly warm and dry. |
| Western Mountains | Variable | Dry early, heavy storms by December. |
Early and Late Winter Storms
The 2025–2026 winter is being called a “bookend winter”—stormy at the start and end, with calmer conditions mid-season.
- December 2025: A collision of Arctic air from Canada and Gulf moisture could create the first major national winter storm before the holidays. “Early December could bring our first significant winter storm of the season,” warns Dr. Jennifer McCall, climate researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Analysis. “These early systems often catch travelers off-guard, especially heading into the holiday rush.”
- February–March 2026: Late-season Arctic intrusions are expected to recharge the snow pattern in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England, delivering powerful blizzards and renewed cold. “The Great Lakes region is once again shaping up to be a snow magnet,” adds Dr. Alex Rodriguez, meteorologist at the University of Wisconsin. “Cold air flowing over warm lake waters will supercharge lake-effect snow bands.”
What are the Climate Drivers Behind the Cold?
Several major climate patterns are aligning to shape this colder-than-normal winter.
| Climate Driver | Effect on U.S. Weather |
|---|---|
| Weak La Niña | Cooler Pacific waters promote cold, snowy conditions across the northern tier. |
| Polar Jet Stream Dips | Troughs allow frigid Arctic air to surge south into the U.S. heartland. |
| Warm Great Lakes | Enhance lake-effect snow early in the season. |
| Greenland Blocking High | Traps cold air over the U.S., prolonging winter outbreaks. |
“This setup has all the hallmarks of a classic cold and snowy pattern,” explains Dr. Megan Ellis, senior atmospheric scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The combination of La Niña and a wavy jet stream will bring volatility—and lots of snow—to northern states.”
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Estimated Snowfall by Region
| Region | Typical First Snow | 2025–2026 Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| High Rockies / Alpine | Late September–Early October | Early start; strong mountain totals. |
| Upper Midwest / Northern Plains | Mid-October–Early November | Heavy lake-effect snow; early arrival. |
| Northeast Mountains | Early October | Frequent storms; high accumulation. |
| Mid-Atlantic / Plains | Late November–Early December | Gradual onset; snowier finish. |
| Pacific Northwest (High Terrain) | October–November | Early-season snow in Cascades. |
Snow totals could exceed 90 inches in the Great Lakes snowbelt—especially around Buffalo, Rochester, Duluth, and Marquette.
Midwest & Great Lakes
Expect consistent snowfall from December through February, with heavy lake-effect bursts. Cities such as Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago will see numerous snow events and occasional whiteouts.
Northeast & New England
Prepare for two major nor’easters—one in December 2025 and another in late February 2026—each capable of dumping over a foot of snow from Boston to New York City.
Rockies & Northwest
Early snowpack in Colorado, Utah, and Montana could deliver one of the earliest ski season openings in years. Washington and Oregon may see wetter, mixed precipitation depending on elevation.
Southern States
Northern portions of Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky could experience light snow or ice in late December or January. The Deep South and Florida are expected to stay largely mild and dry.
Impact on Daily Life and Travel
A stormier winter means widespread effects on transportation, schools, and supply chains:
- Roads: Slippery highways and closures likely in the Midwest and Northeast.
- Air Travel: Delays expected at major hubs including Chicago O’Hare, Boston Logan, and New York JFK.
- Schools: Districts may plan extra snow days or hybrid schedules.
- Logistics: Freight routes and fuel deliveries may see interruptions during back-to-back systems.
“Drivers often underestimate how quickly roads can turn treacherous with the season’s first snow,” cautions Lt. Brandon Reeves of the Illinois State Police. “Preparation is key to avoiding accidents and delays.”
Winter Safety Tips
| Category | Preparation Advice |
|---|---|
| Driving | Install snow tires, check antifreeze, keep blankets and food in the car. |
| Home Heating | Service furnaces early, insulate pipes, and stock firewood or generator fuel. |
| Travel | Monitor airline apps and DOT updates before trips. |
| Health & Wellness | Refill prescriptions and ensure seniors have access to essentials. |
| Outdoor Work | Farmers and construction crews should adjust schedules for early frost or snow. |
“This is shaping up to be one of the most active winters since 2014–2015,” says Dr. Jacob Monroe, environmental climatologist. “Communities that prepare early will handle it best.”
FAQs
When will the First Snow Arrive in the U.S.?
Snow is expected by late September in the Rockies and will reach the Midwest and Northeast by November.
Which Regions will see the Most Snow?
The Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northeast will receive the heaviest totals locally 90 inches or more by spring 2026.
Will the South get any Snow?
Only northern sections of Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky may see light snow or ice; the Deep South will stay mostly warm.
What’s Causing This Year’s Colder Pattern?
A weak La Niña, polar jet stream dips, and warm Great Lakes waters are combining to bring frequent cold surges.
How will Travel be Affected?
Expect flight delays, icy roads, and school closures, especially during December and February storm peaks.