First Snowfall Forecast 2025–2026: When and Where Winter Will Arrive Across the U.S.

The first snowfall forecast for 2025–2026 is here, signaling both excitement and preparation. Across the U.S., millions are ready to welcome the season’s first flakes—symbolizing cozy holidays and crisp winter mornings—but also bracing for slippery roads, travel delays, and school closures.

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The upcoming winter, according to AccuWeather’s Long-Range Forecast, will bring strong early storms and above-average snowfall in several northern regions. The Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast are expected to see the most frequent and heaviest snowfalls.

“We’re forecasting an intense, stormy winter with significant snowfall events at both the beginning and the end of the season,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s Lead Long-Range Meteorologist. “The middle of winter could bring a brief lull, but early and late storms will define this season.”

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2025–2026 Winter Forecast Overview

RegionTiming of First SnowHighlights
Northern RockiesSeptember–Early OctoberEarly snow dustings on high peaks; spreads to Utah and Colorado.
Pacific NorthwestLate OctoberSnowfall in Washington Cascades and Oregon mountains.
Upper MidwestLate October–NovemberEarly snow and heavy lake-effect bands near Great Lakes.
Northeast & New EnglandLate October–DecemberFirst measurable snow by early December; strong nor’easters possible.
Central Plains & Mid-AtlanticNovember–DecemberSnow expands to Kansas, Pittsburgh, and Boston.
Southern StatesLate December–JanuaryLight snow possible in northern Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky.
Deep South & FloridaRareMostly warm conditions with minimal snow.
Western MountainsVariableMostly dry early, with December snowstorms possible.

Early Winter Storms: A Bookend Season

Meteorologists predict a “bookend” winter, with strong storms bracketing the start and end of the season.

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  • December 2025: Early storms from Canada could sweep into the Midwest and move eastward toward the Atlantic.
  • Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: Some of these systems could evolve into powerful nor’easters, bringing heavy snow, gusty winds, and travel disruptions just before the holidays.
  • Late Winter 2026: Another surge of storms is likely, particularly across the Great Lakes and New England, as cold air returns and atmospheric patterns shift.

“Early December could bring our first significant winter storm of the season,” noted Dr. Jennifer McCall, a climate researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Analysis. “These early systems often catch travelers off-guard, especially heading into the holiday rush.”

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Top 12 Snowiest U.S. Locations (2025–2026 Forecast)

RankLocationSnowfall OutlookNotes
1Buffalo, NY90–100 inchesLake-effect snow; multiple blizzards possible.
2Minneapolis, MN80–90 inchesEarly and persistent snow season.
3Bismarck, ND75+ inchesArctic fronts fueling frequent snow.
4Salt Lake City, UT70 inchesEarly mountain snow boosts ski season.
5Fargo, ND70 inchesHeavy Plains snowfall predicted.
6Duluth, MN65–75 inchesStrong lake-effect snow bands.
7Rochester, NY90 inchesHigh snowfall near Lake Ontario.
8Erie, PA80–90 inchesConsistent lake-effect events.
9Anchorage, AK110+ inchesEarly season heavy snow returns.
10Marquette, MI100 inchesUpper Peninsula snow belt peaks.
11Flagstaff, AZ65 inchesMountain snow enhances tourism.
12Mount Washington, NH150+ inchesStrong nor’easters and elevation effects.

“The Great Lakes region is once again shaping up to be a snow magnet,” said Dr. Alex Rodriguez, meteorologist at the University of Wisconsin. “Cold air over warm lake waters will intensify lake-effect snowfalls.”

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What’s Driving the 2025–2026 Winter Pattern?

Meteorologists point to several atmospheric factors influencing this year’s forecast:

  1. Weak La Niña Conditions: Cooler Pacific Ocean waters typically bring colder, snowier winters across northern U.S. states.
  2. Polar Jet Stream Shifts: Expect the jet stream to dip more frequently, allowing Arctic air to spill southward.
  3. Warm Great Lakes: Unusually warm lake surfaces could fuel heavier lake-effect snow, especially early in the season.
  4. High-Pressure Blocking: Patterns over Greenland and the North Atlantic could trap cold air in the U.S. longer.
FactorEffect on Weather
Weak La NiñaBrings colder, stormier winter in northern U.S.
Jet Stream DipsIncreases storm frequency in Midwest and Northeast
Warm Great LakesAmplifies lake-effect snow
Atlantic Blocking PatternsProlongs cold air intrusions

Travel Advisory: Prepare for Disruptions

The first snow is beautiful—but also disruptive. The forecast calls for more frequent storms and longer cold spells across much of the northern U.S.

Key Travel Insights

  • Early Season (October–December): Expect flight delays and icy roads, especially in the Midwest, Northeast, and Rockies.
  • Holiday Season: December storms may disrupt Thanksgiving and Christmas travel, especially along the I-95 corridor.
  • Mid-Season (January): Possible lull with milder conditions in parts of the central U.S.
  • Late Season (February–March): Another surge of strong storms likely as cold air returns.

Safety Tips

  • Keep an emergency winter kit (blankets, flashlight, snacks, and water) in your car.
  • Check state DOT advisories before long drives.
  • Download airline apps for real-time flight updates.
  • Monitor local forecasts closely, especially during December and late February peaks.

“Drivers often underestimate how quickly roads can turn treacherous with the season’s first snow,” warns Lt. Brandon Reeves, a public safety officer with the Illinois State Police. “Preparation is key to avoiding accidents and delays.”

Regional Highlights: When Will the First Snow Arrive?

RegionExpected StartWinter Character
Rocky MountainsLate September–Early OctoberCold and early snow accumulation in high elevations.
Pacific NorthwestLate OctoberFrequent rain-snow mix; heavier snow above 4,000 feet.
Great Lakes & MidwestLate October–Mid-NovemberStrong lake-effect events; colder-than-average temps.
Northeast & Mid-AtlanticNovember–DecemberFirst snow by early December; stormy late winter.
Southern StatesDecember–JanuaryRare snow in northern Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky.

Balancing Winter Joy with Safety

The first snow of the 2025–2026 season will be a nostalgic and magical sight—but preparation is vital. Whether it’s stocking up on winter supplies, scheduling vehicle maintenance, or adjusting travel plans, readiness ensures you can enjoy the season safely.

Winter will bring plenty of snow for skiers and snow lovers, but also hazards for travelers and commuters. The forecast suggests a season of contrasts—stormy bookends, calmer midseason, and bursts of beauty amid cold challenges.

“Winter’s charm lies in its unpredictability,” said meteorologist Paul Pastelok. “Be ready for early surprises and strong finishes.”

FAQs

When will the first snow fall in the U.S.?

Early snow may start in September across the Rockies, spreading to the Great Lakes and Northeast by October and November.

Which regions will get the most snow?

The Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northeast are expected to see the highest totals, especially Buffalo, Rochester, Duluth, and Marquette.

Will southern states experience snow?

Rarely. However, light snow is possible in northern Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky by late December or early January.

What weather pattern is influencing this winter?

A weak La Niña and persistent Arctic air patterns are likely to create colder, stormier conditions in northern regions.

How will travel be affected?

Expect flight delays, icy highways, and school closures during major December and February storms. Travelers should plan accordingly.

Is this winter expected to be colder than usual?

Yes, especially for the Midwest, Northeast, and Rockies, which will experience below-average temperatures and above-average snowfall.

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