The Social Security Administration (SSA) will announce the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) on October 24, delayed by the government shutdown. Early estimates point to a 2.7% increase, giving retirees a modest raise — but rising Medicare premiums and inflation may eat up much of the gain. Here’s what retirees need to know.
Contents
- 1 Social Security Checks Get a Raise: Overview
- 2 COLA 2026: The Raise That’s Smaller Than It Looks
- 3 How Much More Will Retirees Get in 2026?
- 4 The Hidden Catch: Inflation and Medicare Premiums
- 5 Higher Tax Cap Means Higher Contributions for Workers
- 6 Winners and Losers from the 2026 COLA
- 7 Fact Check: What’s True, What’s Not
- 8 Expert Tip: How to Make the Most of Your Raise
- 9 Quote of the Week
- 10 FAQs
- 10.1 When will the 2026 COLA be officially announced?
- 10.2 What is the expected percentage increase?
- 10.3 When will higher payments begin?
- 10.4 How much will Medicare premiums rise?
- 10.5 How does this affect the Social Security tax cap?
- 10.6 Does the COLA apply to SSI and SSDI?
- 10.7 Will the COLA keep up with inflation?
- 11 Big Picture: A Raise That Feels Like Standing Still
Social Security Checks Get a Raise: Overview
| Category | Details (2026) |
|---|---|
| Agency | Social Security Administration (SSA) |
| Announcement Date | October 24, 2025 (Delayed from Oct. 15) |
| Expected COLA | 2.7% (The Senior Citizens League estimate) |
| Beneficiaries | 71 million+ Americans |
| Avg. Monthly Raise | $36 – $58 per month |
| Taxable Wage Base (Cap) | Expected to rise to $176,400 |
| Medicare Part B Premium (2026) | Projected: $206.50 (Up from $185) |
| Effective From | January 2026 payments |
COLA 2026: The Raise That’s Smaller Than It Looks
Every October, Social Security beneficiaries wait for one crucial number — the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) — which determines their next year’s monthly benefit.
This year’s figure is expected to be 2.7%, based on inflation readings from July, August, and September 2025. The official number, however, will be confirmed October 24, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases September’s delayed CPI report.
According to The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan advocacy group, inflation over the summer has stayed high enough to justify the increase.
“Our forecast puts the 2026 COLA at 2.7% — enough to help, but not enough to fully offset this year’s rising prices,” said Mary Johnson, Social Security policy analyst at TSCL.
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Social Security COLA Increase 2026 Announcement: Here’s Why Some Retirees Wish It Were Higher
How Much More Will Retirees Get in 2026?
Below is an estimate of average monthly benefits by age group, and what those amounts could look like with a 2.7% COLA applied:
| Age | Avg. Monthly Benefit (2024) | After 2.7% COLA (2026) | Monthly Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | $1,342 | $1,378 | +$36 |
| 65 | $1,611 | $1,654 | +$43 |
| 67 | $1,930 | $1,982 | +$52 |
| 70 | $2,148 | $2,206 | +$58 |
| 75 | $2,065 | $2,121 | +$56 |
| 80 | $2,006 | $2,060 | +$54 |
Average Raise Range: $36 to $58 per month, depending on benefit amount.
For a retiree receiving the average benefit of $1,915, the monthly check will increase by roughly $52, or $624 per year.
“It’s a raise, but one that’s immediately offset by inflation and medical costs,” said Nancy Altman, co-director at Social Security Works.
The Hidden Catch: Inflation and Medicare Premiums
While a COLA bump is always welcome, it’s often a double-edged sword. The higher the COLA, the higher the inflation retirees are battling. Between 2010 and 2024, inflation outpaced the COLA in 10 of 15 years, resulting in an estimated 20% loss in buying power for fixed-income seniors.
And the 2026 Medicare Part B premium increase is set to erase much of this raise. Premiums will rise from $185 in 2025 to $206.50 in 2026 — a $21.50 jump per month.
That means millions of retirees could see nearly their entire COLA raise absorbed by Medicare deductions before the money even hits their bank account.
“Many seniors are celebrating a raise that, in reality, disappears before January,” said Richard Fiesta, executive director of the Alliance for Retired Americans.
Higher Tax Cap Means Higher Contributions for Workers
Alongside the COLA announcement, the Social Security taxable wage base — or the maximum income subject to Social Security taxes — will rise again in 2026.
- 2025 cap: $168,600
- 2026 cap (projected): $176,400
That means workers earning above that threshold will pay Social Security taxes on an additional $7,800 of income next year.
This is designed to strengthen the system’s funding base as retirees live longer, but it also means higher FICA payroll taxes for high earners.
“It’s a quiet tax hike that helps keep the system solvent,” explained Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.
Winners and Losers from the 2026 COLA
| Category | Winners | Losers |
|---|---|---|
| Retirees with lower Medicare deductions | Receive modest real gain | — |
| High-income workers | Pay more due to higher tax cap | — |
| Disabled beneficiaries (SSDI) | Automatic COLA increase applies | — |
| Seniors on fixed income | Inflation still erodes purchasing power | — |
| New retirees (2025–26) | Start with higher initial benefit | — |
Fact Check: What’s True, What’s Not
| Claim | Status | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| COLA will be announced Oct. 15 | False | The date was delayed to Oct. 24 due to the federal shutdown. |
| COLA expected at 2.7% | True | Based on inflation data through August and forecasts by TSCL. |
| Medicare premium increase will erase most gains | True | Premiums up $21.50/month, offsetting smaller COLA checks. |
| Social Security benefits keep up with inflation | False | Benefits have lost 20% buying power since 2000. |
Expert Tip: How to Make the Most of Your Raise
Even with a modest COLA, small strategic changes can maximize retirement stability:
- Delay claiming benefits if possible — each year of delay boosts lifetime income.
- Check Medicare Advantage or Medigap plans for cheaper coverage.
- Use COLA as a budgeting benchmark, not a spending signal.
- Revisit tax withholding — your 2026 COLA could push you into a higher bracket.
Quote of the Week
“COLA is not a bonus — it’s a survival mechanism. It’s designed to keep retirees from slipping backward, not to make them richer.”
— Mary Johnson, Senior Citizens League
FAQs
When will the 2026 COLA be officially announced?
On October 24, 2025, once September CPI data is released.
What is the expected percentage increase?
2.7%, according to current inflation projections.
When will higher payments begin?
Starting with January 2026 benefit checks.
From $185 to $206.50 per month — a $21.50 increase.
How does this affect the Social Security tax cap?
The wage base limit is projected to rise to $176,400, meaning higher earners will pay slightly more in payroll taxes.
Does the COLA apply to SSI and SSDI?
Yes. All Social Security beneficiaries, including SSDI recipients, get the same percentage increase.
Will the COLA keep up with inflation?
Historically, no. Most years, inflation outpaces benefit adjustments.
Big Picture: A Raise That Feels Like Standing Still
While 71 million Americans will welcome a slightly larger Social Security check in 2026, the reality is sobering — rising living costs, taxes, and Medicare premiums will likely neutralize most of the benefit.
Still, the COLA remains a lifeline, preventing millions from sliding into poverty. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Social Security keeps 22 million Americans above the poverty line, including 16 million seniors.
That makes each October announcement more than a statistic — it’s a survival update for America’s retirees.